Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 9.353242e-05 0.000113 0.000133 0.000157 0.000183 0.000211 0.000242
2024-10-13 7.042056e-05 0.000095 0.000123 0.000157 0.000196 0.000239 0.000291
2024-10-20 5.524809e-05 0.000082 0.000113 0.000153 0.000200 0.000255 0.000320
2024-10-27 4.509757e-05 0.000073 0.000108 0.000154 0.000210 0.000276 0.000357
2024-11-03 3.345394e-05 0.000060 0.000096 0.000144 0.000205 0.000277 0.000369
2024-11-10 3.025688e-05 0.000059 0.000098 0.000152 0.000222 0.000306 0.000414
2024-11-17 2.397358e-05 0.000051 0.000091 0.000147 0.000222 0.000315 0.000434
2024-11-24 1.811798e-05 0.000044 0.000083 0.000141 0.000220 0.000320 0.000449
2024-12-01 1.403065e-05 0.000038 0.000077 0.000137 0.000220 0.000326 0.000466
2024-12-08 1.078144e-05 0.000034 0.000073 0.000134 0.000221 0.000334 0.000485
2024-12-15 7.878902e-06 0.000029 0.000067 0.000129 0.000219 0.000338 0.000497
2024-12-22 5.966104e-06 0.000026 0.000063 0.000127 0.000221 0.000346 0.000517
2024-12-29 3.712339e-06 0.000021 0.000060 0.000127 0.000230 0.000370 0.000563
2025-01-05 2.103026e-06 0.000018 0.000056 0.000128 0.000240 0.000394 0.000611
2025-01-12 9.334772e-07 0.000014 0.000051 0.000124 0.000242 0.000409 0.000645
2025-01-19 4.098015e-07 0.000012 0.000048 0.000125 0.000252 0.000433 0.000693
2025-01-26 4.061880e-08 0.000008 0.000041 0.000116 0.000245 0.000433 0.000708
2025-02-02 1.092299e-08 0.000008 0.000042 0.000123 0.000264 0.000471 0.000774
2025-02-09 NaN 0.000006 0.000038 0.000119 0.000265 0.000482 0.000804
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000004 0.000034 0.000114 0.000263 0.000490 0.000829
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000003 0.000030 0.000110 0.000263 0.000500 0.000857
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000002 0.000028 0.000108 0.000265 0.000512 0.000888
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000001 0.000024 0.000103 0.000264 0.000519 0.000911